Source: The Guardian
Gender-equality quota will give women more power, but may be more concerned with maintaining the status quo

A quiet gender revolution, the likes of which has not been seen in southern Africa and, perhaps, anywhere in the world is under way in Namibia.

The ruling South West Africa People's Organisation (Swapo) has not only committed to filling half of its seats in parliament with women, but also committed to what they call a "zebra system", whereby if a minister is a woman, the deputy minister will be a man, and vice versa.

Even more ambitiously, the implication is that the roles will be switched in successive elections. What this means is that Namibia appointing a man to the presidency in 2014 is being read by many decision makers as a Swapo commitment to appoint a woman to the presidency in 2019.

The reason why this is a revolution and not just another election promise, is that Swapo is already moving to operationalise this commitment to gender equality. The group initially agreed in 2002 to pursue greater gender equality, in calling for 50% of leadership positions in parliament, government and state-owned enterprises to be occupied by women.

At the most recent Swapo conference, it was agreed that this policy would be operationalised in the elections in November, which Swapo is expected to win.

Twenty-five of the 72 members of parliament are women, meaning that if the policy is operationalised, up to 11 male members risk losing their seats, if 36 seats are to be filled by women. Swapo's response has been to expand parliament, thus removing the fear of losing a seat as a major obstacle to implementing this new "gender zebra" policy.

Last month, the Namibian government executive took the first steps towards expanding the number of seats in parliament's national assembly to 100 members. The issue was discussed in cabinet last month, with the press reporting that a bill is being prepared for circulation. The meeting was called at a high level and chaired by the prime minister, Hage Geingob, indicating that Swapo is serious about this.

Swapo has sent a directive to regional executives on the election of parliamentary candidates. In this month's electoral college vote, the directive calls for the zebra list to be applied. Swapo's future secretary general will be a man and his deputy a woman, with the subsequent 20 positions alternating between men and women.

To be clear, this is not entirely driven by a selfless commitment to gender equality. It has not escaped the attention of sceptics, that Swapo, like the ANC, is dominated by members who were activists in exile. Exiled activists tend to be older than those who remained in the country and thus the current political constellation is threatened in the near future with leaders retiring and dying.

With women living longer and spouses of the political elite tending to be younger, the move to gender equality could be about maintaining the current political power base.

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, right, is the Namibian foreign affairs minister, but most strategic ministries are led by men.
Photograph: Alexander Joe/AFP/Getty Images

Women leaders in Namibia tend to be associated with the "softer" aspects of governance. Though three of the five standing committees in parliament are chaired by women, ministers of strategic ministries like transport, agriculture and those related to managing the economy tend to be men. This sets up the popular perception that women members of parliament will not rock the boat, devoting their attention to so-called women's issues, such as calling for better health and social services. This perception will be proven wrong.

As women get more power, they will be able to better compete for the strategic positions. Men compete for leadership of strategic ministries because of the political and economic incentives they embody. Women will compete too. After all, every woman who has challenged a man has done so despite assumptions to the contrary.

And herein lies the crux: Namibia's push for gender equality is less a sign of progress than a political leadership blinded by more than 20 years of being a ruling party. Behind closed doors, as is the case in many southern African countries, the leadership of Swapo is treated with absolute respect.

The real politics that shapes policy is non-confrontational and always a negotiation based on respect for the existing political elite. The push for gender equity has been slow and steady within the party, focusing on manufacturing the perception that the women coming through the system want what men want. This perception is manufactured for political expediency.

Women do not want a continuation of the status quo. Women in Namibia, as is the case in most parts of Africa, are only too aware that government's attention is increasingly focused on the needs and interests of a tight cabal of men that is focused on wealth creation and mass projects that fundamentally empower a selected few rather than the majority.

As is the case in South Africa, the current leadership is more interested in portraying Namibia as a successful, rich country than it is on improving equity and ensuring meaningful service delivery.

Like in South Africa, a growing urban, black middle class masks endemic and entrenched rural poverty, widening inequality and structural impediments that undermine social mobility. Like in South Africa, a rural education combined with a first-world economy means that if your parents do not have the resources to augment a shoddy government education system, you, your children and children's children will remain in poverty.

The achilles heel of both South Africa's and Namibia's political constellation is that the system is increasingly seen to voice the interests of only a vested few, and with that vested few rapidly greying, it is only a matter of time before they retire or die.

Youth and women are not part of the political equation. While the leadership is talking about being an international player, building a first-world economy and blaming their failures on the legacy of colonialism or apartheid, youth and women are talking about violence against women, jobs, alcoholism, basic social services and basic access to food and water.

Equally, as in South Africa, a sister political party to Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters, the Namibian Economic Freedom Fighters (NEFF) has been established in the country.

The NEFF is clearly positioning itself to embody an alternative narrative. As is the case with the ANC, Swapo has failed to enfranchise its youth league, thus strangling a much-needed supply of up and coming male leaders to perpetuate the current system.

While it is not assured, the current cadre is at threat by simple demographics. Should women and the youth join forces, and they very well may do so, there is a real opportunity to turn the system on its head.

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